Explainers & Guides
How to Effectively Communicate TPRM and Supply Chain Risk to Your Board
Global security challenges have escalated dramatically in 2024. With ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and a new US president set to take office in January, the world is bracing for what’s to come. In this environment, supply chain cyber security faces mounting threats. This article explores potential black swan events in 2025 that could undermine supply chain security, and discusses how organisations can stay prepared.
Last year, we outlined several black swan events that could disrupt supply chains in 2024, and we now take this opportunity again to take a look at the year ahead.
But to first briefly recap, what are black swan events, and why do they matter? They are in essence rare, high-impact incidents that defy conventional expectations. While inherently unpredictable, their potential to upend the best security strategies and resilience plans makes them essential to consider in risk management.
As we step into 2025, the stakes are even higher.
Emerging technologies, geopolitical instability, and the rapid evolution of cyber threats underscore the need for vigilance. Here are some potential black swan events to prepare for in the year ahead.
The very nature of black swan events makes predicting them inherently speculative.
Nonetheless, by considering hypothetical black swan events in 2025, security professionals and organisations can strategically plan and take proactive measures to reduce risks.
Generative AI tools are advancing at an unprecedented rate, creating new vulnerabilities across already highly complex digital supply chains.
Imagine a scenario where malicious actors deploy an AI-driven tool that systematically scans supplier networks, identifying and exploiting weak spots in real-time. This could involve injecting malicious code into an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system to disrupt global logistics or altering predictive analytics to sabotage inventory forecasting, leading to widespread shortages and financial losses.
These tools could also analyse and replicate legitimate user behaviour, making it harder for traditional security systems to detect breaches. As AI becomes more accessible, the risk of sophisticated, AI-driven supply chain attacks will only grow.
Cloud services are the backbone of modern supply chains. A catastrophic breach of a major provider could simultaneously expose sensitive data and disrupt operations for countless organisations.
The Ticketmaster breach in 2024 hinted at the risks of over-reliance on cloud platforms. A similar event at a larger scale could cripple supply chains reliant on SaaS solutions, halting business processes from procurement to delivery.
Furthermore, secondary impacts such as downtime in collaborative platforms, communication tools, and data analytics systems would amplify the disruption, leaving organisations scrambling to restore critical operations.
The Cencora breach in 2024 exposed the vulnerabilities in pharmaceutical supply chains. A more sophisticated attack could disrupt drug manufacturing and distribution, compromise sensitive health data, or even endanger public health.
For instance, ransomware targeting a major vaccine producer could delay critical medical treatments, creating cascading health and economic impacts. Additionally, tampered supply chain components, such as altered ingredients or counterfeit products, could infiltrate the pharmaceutical ecosystem, leading to broader regulatory and safety challenges.
In 2024, the attempted XZ-utils attack highlighted the risks posed by threat actors targeting open-source components. A successful long-term infiltration of widely used software by state-sponsored threat actors could lead to a global-scale compromise.
A possible black swan event could be where a malicious actor embeds a backdoor into a popular open-source library, enabling undetected data exfiltration or remote control of enterprise systems across thousands of organisations.
Such an attack could compromise sensitive data and also erode trust in open-source solutions, pushing organisations toward more restrictive, proprietary alternatives.
Quantum computing’s rapid development poses a unique threat.
A sudden breakthrough in quantum algorithms could render current encryption methods obsolete overnight. This would leave supply chain communications and data transfers vulnerable to interception and decryption, exposing sensitive information and enabling targeted cyber attacks on an unprecedented scale.
As businesses struggle to adopt quantum-resistant encryption, there could be a window of heightened vulnerability, during which attackers exploit insufficiently protected systems of critical suppliers to access critical data.
The convergence of IT and OT systems creates new vulnerabilities. A sophisticated cyber attack targeting manufacturing equipment or critical infrastructure could cause physical damage and operational disruptions.
For example, compromised operational technology at a major automotive plant could halt production lines, resulting in severe economic and logistical ripple effects. In a more extreme scenario, attackers might exploit vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure—such as power grids or water treatment facilities—causing widespread societal and economic consequences beyond the immediate supply chain of one organisation.
An escalation in the Middle East could lead to coordinated cyber attacks targeting, for example, the intricate energy supply chain.
Hostile actors might disrupt critical infrastructure, such as oil refineries or shipping routes, causing widespread energy shortages. For supply chains, this could mean delays in transportation, increased costs, and heightened security risks for goods in transit.
Beyond immediate disruptions, these attacks could destabilise global markets, lead to escalated inflation, and create ripple effects across industries that rely heavily on energy-intensive operations.
The potential black swan events outlined above reveal digital supply chains' vast and interconnected vulnerabilities, underscoring the urgent need for proactive defence measures.
At a minimum, organisations must review and harden their supply chain security through robust third-party risk management and continuous monitoring.
This includes regularly auditing supplier practices, implementing advanced threat detection systems, and fostering transparency throughout the supply chain. However, true resilience requires collaboration.
Businesses must work closely with suppliers, industry peers, and national security players to secure overlapping supply chains. Coordinating information-sharing initiatives, participating in industry-wide cyber resilience and information sharing programmes, and adopting shared standards for risk management can significantly strengthen defences.
Equally important is fostering a culture of cyber security awareness at all organisational levels, ensuring that all stakeholders understand the critical importance of their role in maintaining robust security measures.
Tabletop exercises and scenario planning are also essential. Professionals must shift their mindset: just because an event seems unlikely doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
Recent history has shown that unexpected disruptions occur with increasing frequency and intensity. Relying on decades of relative stability and predictability, now increasingly a thing of the past, as a guide for future risks is not a good idea.
Black swan events, though rare and unpredictable, highlight the need for organisations to embrace a culture of adaptability and resilience.
By preparing for the unthinkable, organisations can mitigate the impact of these rare but devastating events. As 2025 unfolds, let’s stay vigilant, adaptive, and united in protecting the integrity of our global supply chains.
Tools like Risk Ledger offer a powerful way to bolster defences by providing clear visibility into third-party ecosystems. By enabling organisations to identify vulnerabilities and monitor risks in real-time, Risk Ledger supports a proactive approach to securing supply chains.
Moreover, its collaborative framework empowers businesses to work more effectively with their partners, ensuring that security measures are consistent and robust across all levels. Adopting such innovative solutions can help organisations stay prepared for emerging threats and mitigate the impact of even the most unexpected disruptions.
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